BREAKING: Stears Poll Predicts Next President Is Peter Obi 

Kwara State has successfully predicted the results of each Presidential Election since 1999.

By Omotayo Olutekunbi

The most reputable Nigerian intelligence agency, Stears, has determined that the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, is the most widely accepted candidate in the race after completing Nigeria’s most thorough public opinion surveys for the 2023 cycle.

Peter Obi is the candidate that receives at least 25% of the vote in the most geopolitical zones (5 out of 6) among voters who announced their candidate choice, per the poll analysis made available to Pulse on Tuesday, February 07, 2023. He has a 4-to-1 advantage against Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives candidate, while PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar only receives 25% of the vote in two (2) geographical zones.

Twice between September and December 2022, ANAP surveys revealed that Obi was ahead of other front-runners. In addition, the Nextier Poll recently indicated that Peter Obi will win.

The Nigerian survey with the highest sample size was conducted offline and had more than 6200 respondents.

Additionally, Stears overcame a challenge that had limited all other surveys, making this poll genuinely groundbreaking.

Explaining this problem now solved, Michael Famoroti, Head of Intelligence & Co-Founder at Stears, said, “simple analysis of the poll results puts Peter Obi in the lead with 27% of all votes, ahead of Bola Ahmed Tinubu (15%) and Atiku Abubakar (12%). This is aligned with the results of other polls; however, it is hard to draw definite conclusions without examining the large portion of respondents who do not provide a candidate preference—a proportion as high as 50% in previously released polls. Where other polls have been inconclusive due to the large share of silent voters, Stears’ proprietary model is able to provide answers by predicting the most likely candidate for silent voters.”

Inferring that most people who were reluctant to divulge their ballots were BATified, Stears’ prediction model attributes 43% of undeclared votes to Tinubu.

When the reassigned quiet voters are added to the stated voter total, Peter Obi still leads all other front-runners.

Other key take-outs from Stears Poll

• Nigerians vote along religious lines, although the respondents would not admit to it.
• The only region where Peter Obi fails to secure 25% of the vote is the North-West, where the presence of Rabiu Kwankwaso means that votes are most evenly split in the region. 
• Kwara State is considered a swing state and has successfully predicted the results of each Presidential Election since 1999. 
• Bola Tinubu wins in Kwara.
• Bola Tinubu wins the elections in a case of low voter turnout.